Jrue Holiday Warns Points From Percent

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Salt Lake City, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Paul Millsap scored 20 points, leading the Jazz to a 108-79 pasting of the shorthanded Clippers on Tuesday. C.J. Miles added 19 points and Devin Harris had 13 for the Jazz, winners of three straight and eight of their last nine. Alec Burks chipped in 11 while Al Jefferson and Enes Kanter both finished with 10.

 

But the Jazz, who are 7-1 at home this season, made short work of LA. Millsap was sharp from the opening tip, scoring 10 first-quarter points on 5-of-6 shooting en route to a 29-17 lead.

 

The advantage was 52-41 at the half and ballooned to as many as 20 in the third, leading to a fourth devoid of drama and rife with reserves. Still, the Jazz did not relent, emphasizing the win with a scintillating bench effort.

 

Game Notes

 

The Clippers have dropped 42 of their last 43 games in Salt Lake City...Paul was injured in the fourth quarter of Saturday's 102-94 victory over the Lakers. He had an MRI on Sunday, which came back negative...Los Angeles was also without guard Mo Williams (sore right foot), while the Jazz were without forwards Josh Howard (strained left quadriceps) and Derrick Favors (sprained left ankle).

 

Which is about how ugly much of the game was for both teams in their first meeting since Dallas swept the Lakers in last year's Western Conference semifinals.

 

The Lakers extended their home win streak to nine games since a season-opening loss to Chicago despite shooting just 38.2 percent from the floor, including 1-of-10 from three-point range.

 

Monday was also former Laker Lamar Odom's first trip back to play in Los Angeles since being traded to the defending champions in the offseason. He scored 10 off the bench for the Mavericks.

 

The Clips, meanwhile, were trounced, 108-79, in Salt Lake City on Tuesday without Paul for the second consecutive game. Ex-Mav Caron Butler, who signed with LA as a free agent after the lockout, led the Clippers with 14 points while Courtney Fortson added 13 and Randy Foye chipped in 11.

 

Blake Griffin scored 10 on 5-of-12 shooting and added 11 rebounds as the Clippers dropped their 16th straight in Salt Lake City.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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