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07/21/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Already 18 1/2 games out of contention in the American League East and just 10-17 versus division foes, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays try to follow up their impressive effort on Friday as they play two versus the New York Yankees in the Bronx on Saturday.
The stars aligned for the Devil Rays on Friday night as they thrashed New York in a 14-4 decision in the opener of a four-game set. Dioner Navarro punched his first career grand slam and B.J. Upton posted his first career multi-homer game in the lopsided decision.
Even more impressive was the fact that Tampa Bay starting pitcher Edwin Jackson picked the Yankees to record his first road win in nearly four seasons. Jackson shut out the Yankees over six innings, giving up only four hits and walking four, while striking out four for the visitors. The victory was just the second of the season overall for Jackson, who last won on the road in September of 2003.
While Jackson was showing signs of life for the visitors, Mike Mussina was continuing to struggle as he suffered his seventh loss, against just four wins this season. Mussina was touched for six runs on seven hits over 4 2/3 innings. The meeting was supposed to work in favor of Mussina, who entered the game a perfect 7-0 versus the Rays in Yankee Stadium, but it just wasn't meant to be.
Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano and Andy Phillips each had a pair of hits for New York, while Bobby Abreu offset those efforts with three strikeouts in five at- bats. Johnny Damon snapped the longest hitless drought of his career (0- for-20) with a single, while Hideki Matsui had his hitting streak snapped at 14 games.
Heading out to the hill for the Devil Rays in the first game of today's doubleheader will be youngster Jason Hammel, who began his career with six straight losses before earning his first-ever victory at the major league level earlier this season versus Arizona.
Unfortunately, that win in relief is still the lone victory in his career at this point as he gets ready to start his first game of 2007. Last weekend he faced the Yankees for the second time in three days, retiring just a single batter before heading to the dugout.
The Treasure Valley Community College product has thrown a total of just 61 2/3 innings in his major league career, resulting in a lofty 7.30 ERA.
The second game of the day will see left-hander J.P. Howell take the hill for the Rays, getting the call up from Triple-A Durham. Howell, now in his third year of major league experience, last threw at this level on July 5 versus Boston at Fenway Park, where he was battered for six runs in a mere 2/3 innings of action.
Howell as a career mark of 1-0 versus the Yankees but is still just 5-11 overall.
Left-hander Kei Igawa stands to see action today for the Yankees, yet another youngster who is in his first year of major league play. Igawa, who turned 28 just over a week ago, has not won a game since the end of April. Since then he has appeared in five contests, the most recent being a 6-4 victory over Toronto on Monday. In that game the lefty surrendered three runs on seven hits, two of which were home runs, and walked four while striking out seven in five innings of work.
In his only other appearance against Tampa Bay this season, Igawa was touched for seven runs on eight hits over 4 1/3 innings back in April.
Later in the day, rookie hurler Matt DeSalvo gets his first-ever look at the Devil Rays in the second game trying to improve upon his 1-3 record.
DeSalvo, a 26-year old from the Keystone State, last pitched in the majors back on May 28 versus Toronto on the road, allowing three runs on five hits and three walks over 4 2/3 innings.
Over the last seven games Alex Rodriguez, who leads the AL in both home runs (32) and RBI (92), has knocked in five and scored five times, but is hitting a mere .185 during that span for the Yankees. Abreu is tied for the team-lead with seven knocked in over the last week, despite hitting a paltry .167 for the club, currently eight games behind Boston for first place in the division.
Over the last six games Upton has 11 hits and eight runs scored for Tampa Bay, both team highs, while Carlos Pena has knocked in 11 on just eight hits, six of which have gone for extra bases.
In the three previous seasons the Yankees have gone 20-8 against Tampa Bay at home, posting a perfect 10-0 mark in 2004, but this season NY has already dropped two of three meetings to the Devil Rays in the Bronx and are just 4-5 versus today's visitors overall.
<< Indians, Rangers continue set in Texas
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Slowly creeping up on the Detroit Tigers in the American
League Central, the Cleveland Indians shoot for their third straight victory
tonight as they take on the Texas Rangers in the third of a four-game set at
Rangers Ballpa
<< Haren, Athletics set to tangle with Orioles
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A couple of teams fighting for respectability within their
own divisions battle it out tonight in the second of a three-game set from
McAfee Coliseum, as the Oakland Athletics take on the Baltimore Orioles.
Baltimore, whic
<< Cubs hope to prove they are kings of the Hill versus Arizona
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lefty Rich Hill can put a little more distance between
himself and a recent tailspin today when the Chicago Cubs host the Arizona
Diamondbacks in game two of a three-game weekend set at Wrigley Field.
Hill, a 27-year-old
<< Reds aim to rebound against Marlins
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Young left-hander Bobby Livingston goes for his third win
of the season, and of his brief big-league career, tonight when the Cincinnati
Reds visit Dolphin Stadium for game three of a four-game series with the host
Florida Ma
KC shoots for consecutive wins over Detroit >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Best meets the worst in the American League Central this
evening as the Detroit Tigers play host to the Kansas City Royals in the
second of a three-game set from Comerica Park.
On Friday night the Tigers were beaten and ba
Red Sox clash with White Sox, possibly without Ortiz >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Still with the largest cushion of any American League
division leader heading into play on Saturday, the Boston Red Sox shoot for
their second straight victory as they contend with the Chicago White Sox in
the third game of a
Tiger shoots a 69 in third round >>
Carnoustie, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tiger Woods shot a two-under 69 on
Saturday and finished 54 holes at one-under-par 212 at the British Open
Championship at Carnoustie.
Woods currently trails Sergio Garcia by six shots as th
Reds place Gonzalez on restricted list >>
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cincinnati Reds transferred shortstop
Alex Gonzalez from the bereavement list to the restricted list on Saturday.
Gonzalez had been on the bereavement list since last Saturday.
In 83 games this seas
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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