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07/29/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While the Philadelphia Phillies wait for Roy Oswalt to approve a trade to them, they will shoot for a three-game sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight at Citizens Bank Park.
According to multiple reports, the Phillies and Houston Astros have a deal in place that would send Oswalt to the two-time defending National League champions. The only thing standing in the way is Oswalt, who must waive his no-trade clause.
With or without Oswalt, the Phillies are the hottest team in baseball right now. They won their seventh straight game on Wednesday, as prized prospect Domonic Brown stroked an RBI double on his first major league swing and Roy Halladay tossed his major league-leading eighth complete game of the season in Philadelphia's 7-1 win.
One of the most heralded prospects in baseball, Brown was summoned from Triple-A Lehigh Valley after the Phillies disabled center fielder Shane Victorino, who suffered a left abdominal strain during Tuesday's series opener.
The 22-year-old Brown was in the starting lineup for his big league debut, playing right field, and narrowly missed hitting a home run in his first at- bat in the second inning. He went 2-for-3 with a sacrifice fly and scored two runs.
Carlos Ruiz doubled twice and knocked in three runs for the Phillies, who have won 10 straight at home.
"It's obviously been a lot more fun," Halladay said. "I think it's important we carry it on the road. We seem to play well at home here lately and we need to carry it over."
Philadelphia remains 3 1/2 games behind first-place Atlanta in the NL East standings after the Braves beat Washington on Wednesday.
Miguel Montero's two-out RBI double in the ninth inning spoiled the shutout bid for Halladay (12-8), who recorded nine strikeouts and did not issue a walk.
Arizona's Edwin Jackson (6-10) gave up five runs on eight hits and walked two in five-plus innings to absorb the loss, the sixth in a row for the Diamondbacks.
Heading to the hill for the Phils tonight will be righty Kyle Kendrick, who is 6-4 with a 4.60 ERA. Kendrick beat the Colorado Rockies on Saturday, holding them to a run and six hits in seven innings.
Kendrick will be making his fourth start against the D-Backs, but has yet to record a decision against them while pitching to a 6.23 ERA.
Arizona, meanwhile, will counter with newly-acquired lefty Joe Saunders, who was picked up from the Angels in the recent Dan Haren deal. Saunders, an All- Star in 2008, has hit a rough patch in 2010, having gone 6-10 with a 4.62 ERA that's considerably higher than his career 4.29 mark.
"I'm looking forward to the challenge," said Saunders. "It's going to be fun to go out there with my new club and pitch. I'm looking forward to the challenge. I'm anxious to get out there."
Saunders has pitched well against the National League, going 6-3 with a 3.80 ERA in 11 starts that includes a win in his only other matchup against the Phillies.
The Diamondbacks took two of three from Philly earlier in the year, but the Phils are 8-3 in their last 11 against Arizona and 26-16 against the D-backs since the 2004 season.
<< Indiana State seeking OC after Walters' departure
Terre Haute, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Indiana State is conducting a fast search
to replace its offensive coordinator after Troy Walters resigned earlier this
week to accept the position of wide receivers coach at Texas A&M.
In his only seas
<< Giants, Posey aim to keep rolling in finale with Marlins
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Buster Posey tries to match a San Francisco rookie record
by hitting in his 22nd straight game this afternoon, while fellow rookie
Madison Bumgarner shoots for a fifth straight win when the San Francisco
Giants complete a fou
<< Jimenez hopes to bring Rockies' skid to a close in finale with Pirates
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Suddenly slumping right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez has a few
positives going for him today when he gets the call for the Colorado Rockies
in the third and final game of their series with the visiting Pittsburgh
Pirates at Coors Fi
<< Royals welcome Orioles to Kansas City
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of last-place teams seeking to end lengthy losing
streaks begin a four-game series tonight at Kansas City's Kauffman Stadium,
where the slumping Royals hope to get well at the expense of the lowly
Baltimore Orioles.
Newcastle defender Taylor to miss three months >>
Newcastle, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Newcastle center back Steven Taylor will
be sidelined three months with a shoulder injury, the English Premier League
club revealed Thursday.
Taylor, 24, dislocated the shoulder in a preseason friendly
A's attempt to narrow gap in West in finale with Rangers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After coming through with a much-needed victory on
Wednesday, the Oakland Athletics will try to gain further ground on the
American League West-leading Texas Rangers when the divisional rivals wrap up
a three-game series toni
A-Rod tries once again for 600th home run in Cleveland >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With Alex Rodriguez still on the verge of reaching one of
baseball's most exclusive milestones, the New York Yankees will wrap up a
four-game series with the Cleveland Indians tonight at Progressive Field.
Rodriguez remain
Aberdeen signs midfielder Hartley >>
Aberdeen, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Aberdeen signed Scotland midfielder Paul
Hartley on Thursday.
Hartley, who has played 25 times for Scotland, was named Aberdeen's captain.
He last played for Bristol City, and played at Celtic from 200
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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