Unpredictable tournament sets up USA-Cuba in quarters

Baseball Betting Lines

07/30/2010 - Thunder Bay, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After six exciting days and 30 hard- fought games of round-robin competition, the 2010 International Baseball Federation World Junior Baseball Championship is set to begin the medal round. Anything but predictable, the round-robin portion of the tournament had a touch of everything, from pitching gems to nail-biting, walk-off wins. Fans in Thunder Bay have been treated all week to a world class display of the best young talent the game has to offer.

Even before the first pitch was thrown, the drama had begun. Less than 24 hours before the start of the championship, the IBAF announced that Team Venezuela had dropped out of the tournament amid speculation of visa troubles, only to be reinstated the following day, enabling them to play in their second scheduled game. While Venezuela stumbled to a 1-4 record in round-robin play, their eventual participation in the tournament can be viewed as a minor victory.

Perhaps the most shocking storyline to emerge out of the preliminary round was powerhouse Cuba's 3-2 record and fourth-place finish in Pool B. Cuba enjoyed a blazing-hot start to the tournament capturing wins in each of their first three contests while outscoring their opponents 29-1, but following a 6-5 loss to the defending champions from South Korea in their fourth game, Team Cuba was beaten in extra innings by tournament underdogs the Netherlands. As a result, a potential gold-medal-game scenario will now take place in just the quarterfinals, as Cuba will take on undefeated Team USA.

"You never know what is going to happen in a tournament," said Team USA assistant manager Tom Succow. "I think all different types of things occur when you have a round-robin with as many games as we've played in the past week. The fact that we have drawn Cuba and Cuba has drawn us, it's not shocking,"

Equally unpredictable was Wednesday night's surprise thriller between Team Canada and the Czech Republic. The Czech Republic came into the game winless and hungry to upset the host nation in front of a patriotic sold out Port Arthur Stadium, and almost delivered another shocking tournament upset. After being up 6-2 through seven innings, Canada chipped away until Dalton Pompey hit a walk-off, opposite-field blast into the corner in the bottom of the ninth that gave Canada a quarterfinal berth versus Italy. Had Canada lost to the Czechs they would have had a much more daunting task in the round of eight, facing a talented Chinese Taipei team whose only loss came to gold-medal favorites Team USA.

Canada's path to the gold medal game could not have been scripted any better for the host nation. Should Canada beat Italy on Friday, they would face the winner of Team Netherlands and Chinese Taipei in the first semi-final matchup Saturday afternoon. Arguably the three toughest matchups in the entire tournament for Canada have fallen to the opposite side of the medal round bracket. In the process, Cuba, USA and South Korea are likely to beat up on each other vying for the remaining spot in the gold medal final. This all bodes well for a Canadian team looking to build off the momentum of a walk-off win but if we've learned anything from this past week, it's that nothing is certain. With the tournament shifting to single-game knock out, there's an even smaller margin for error, and an upset at this stage of the game doesn't permit for second chances.

Even though the round-robin hasn't shaken down exactly as experts had projected, contending teams are echoing the pragmatic words of Succow.

"You've got to play the best teams to win the gold medal...our mind set is to win the gold medal."

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MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?

Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite.  Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight.  With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites.  As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).

Midwest

#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler

The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April.  Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT.  After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games.  Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season.  As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers.  Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS).  Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field.  With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.

#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV

As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year.  If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season.  As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well.  This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons.  Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late.  There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games.  It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.

East

#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown

“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season.  Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU.  They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games.  With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field.  Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense.  Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc.  The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range.  Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.

#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC

The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country.  Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times.  Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter.  UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen.  UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS.  An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games.  This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS.  USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types.  An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough.  USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS.  They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12.  When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.

With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action.  Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”.  By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.

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